Which Indian States are managing Coronavirus well and which are not?

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I have been conducting Data Analytics Studies on the Coronavirus Pandemic for 131 days and have written 200 research-based blog posts on COVID-19 in these 131 days.

On a daily basis, I read a lot of newspapers, news websites, articles and blogs, and as far as I can recall, no one has done such a comprehensive study on this subject.

Population figures are estimates at the end of 2019 and not the official 2011 census figures. 31 states / UTs are part of this study. States / UTs below a 1 million (10 lakh) population have been left out due to lack of space.

I have listed the states (from best on top of the table) based on four criteria. The dark red colour has been used for the absolute worse performance, red for bad performance, orange for poor or below average, yellow for average, light green for good and dark green for the best performance.

The most important criteria is the testing percentage compared to the national average, as that is probably the only thing that is in the hands of the state administration.

I have also flagged the states’ performance on three other criteria — (1) Cases per Million (CPM); (2) Fatality Rate (deaths as a percentage of cases); and (3) Positivity Rate (positive tests as a percentage of total tests). In the case of Fatality Rates, I have excluded Maharashtra and Gujarat from the national average, as these two states have an unusually high Fatality Rate. Excluding the two, the national Fatality Rate is 1.77%.

If the numbers do not make sense, I have colour coded them as explained above. However, testing percentage has been given the maximum weightage.

Based on these criteria:

TAMIL NADU is No.1. The Testing Rate is almost 2.5 times the national average and there are no flags. Congratulations to CM EK Palaniswami, Deputy CM O. Panneerselvam and their team.

JAMMU & KASHMIR is No.2. Girish Chandra Murmu, an IAS officer who was principal secretary to Narendra Modi for 6 years when Modi was Gujarat CM, is the Lt. Governor. J&K has the third highest Testing Rate at 3.72 times the national average. The only flag is that the Positivity Rate is 65.6% lower than the national average — why?

PUDUCHERRY is at No.3. The Testing Rate is 2.21 times the national average and there are no flags. Congratulations to CM V. Narayanasamy and his team.

KARNATAKA is No.4. The Testing Rate is 1.53 times the national average and there are no flags. Congratulations to CM BS Yediyurappa and his team.

HARYANA is No.5. The Testing Rate is 1.58 times the national average. The only flag is that the Fatality Rate is 25.4% lower than the national average. Why? CM ML Khattar please clarify.

DELHI is No.6. It has the second-highest Testing Rate at 4.33 times the national average. There is a red flag for a Positivity Rate 81.3% higher than the national average; and a dark red flag for a CPM rate which is a whopping 7.86 times the national average. While the credit for the high testing rate partially goes to Home Minister Amit Shah as he made efforts to triple Delhi’s testing rate, CM Arvind Kejriwal and Deputy CM Manish Sisodia should clarify the two flags.

GOA is No.7. Though the Testing Rate at 6.68 times the national average is the highest amongst all states and UTs, there are three flags — an orange flag for a 56.8% lower Positivity Rate, a red flag for a CPM rate which is 2.88 times the national average and another red flag for a Fatality Rate which is shockingly 66% lower than the national average. Is Goa under-reporting Covid deaths? It seems very likely! CM Pramod Sawant should clarify.

ANDHRA PRADESH is No.8. The Testing Rate is 2.44 times the national average but there are two orange flags — one for a 51.6% lower Positivity Rate and another for a 26.6% lower Fatality Rate than the national average. Is Andhra also under-reporting deaths? CM YS Jagan Mohan Reddy please clarify.

TRIPURA is No.9. The Testing Rate is 2.67 times the national average but there are two flags — a red flag for a 67% lower Positivity Rate and a dark red flag for a Fatality Rate which is a whopping 87% lower than the national average. It is very likely that Tripura is under-reporting deaths!! CM Biplab Kumar Deb should clarify.

ARUNACHAL PRADESH is No.10. The Testing Rate is 2.52 times the national average but there are two flags — a red flag for a 76.3% lower Positivity Rate and a dark red flag for a Fatality Rate which is a whopping 78.5% lower than the national average. It is very likely that even Arunachal is under-reporting deaths!! CM Pema Khandu should clarify.

ASSAM is No.11. The Testing Rate is 1.84 times the national average but there are two flags — an orange flag for a 54.5% lower Positivity Rate and a dark red flag for a Fatality Rate which is a whopping 85.9% lower than the national average. It is likely that even Assam is under-reporting deaths!! CM Sarbananda Sonowal and Finance/Health/PWD minister Himanta Biswa Sarma should clarify.

MANIPUR is No.12. The Testing Rate is 2.26 times the national average but there are two flags — a red flag for a 67.4% lower Positivity Rate and a dark red flag for a Fatality Rate of ZERO. Yes, zero!!! How is this possible? CM N. Biren Singh should clarify.

PUNJAB is No.13. The Testing Rate is 1.51 times the national average but there are two red flags — one for a 72.5% lower Positivity Rate and another for a CPM Rate which is 58.6% lower than the national average. How is this possible? Do Punjabis have some special immunity? CM Capt. Amarinder Singh please clarify.

RAJASTHAN is No.14. The Testing Rate is 1.5 times the national average but there are two red flags — one for a 70.3% lower Positivity Rate and another for a CPM Rate which is 55.5% lower than the national average. How is this possible? Do people of Rajasthan also have some special immunity? CM Ashok Gehlot please clarify.

CHANDIGARH is No.15. The Testing Rate is 93% the national average and there are no flags. Administrator V.P. Singh Badnore needs to improve testing.

UTTARAKHAND at No.16 has a 7% better Testing Rate than the national average but there are two orange flags — one for a 54.1% lower Positivity Rate and the other for a 33.3% lower Fatality Rate. Is Uttarakhand also under-reporting deaths? Please clarify CM Trivendra Singh Rawat.

NAGALAND is No.17. The Testing Rate is 1.3 times the national average but there are two flags — an orange flag for a 58.6% lower Positivity Rate and a dark red flag for a Fatality Rate of ZERO. Yes, zero, just like its Southern neighbour Manipur!!! How is this possible? Do people in the Eastern part of India’s Northeast region have some kind of special immunity from death? CM Neiphiu Rio should clarify.

MAHARASHTRA is No.18. The Testing Rate is 1.27 times the national average but there are three flags — a red flag for a Positivity Rate 2.42 times the national average, a dark red flag for a CPM rate 3.07 times the national average and another dark red flag for a Fatality Rate 2.13 times the national average. While the high CPM rate can probably be attributed to a high urban population, there is no explanation for such a high Fatality Rate. Doesn’t Maharashtra have proper healthcare facilities? CM Uddhav Thackeray and his coalition partners Sharad Pawar and Rahul Gandhi must clarify.

HIMACHAL PRADESH is No.19. The Testing Rate is 1.53 times the national average but there are three flags — a red flag for a 83% lower Positivity Rate, a dark red flag for a 74% lower CPM rate (both are connected), and a red flag for a 65.5% lower Fatality Rate. Does CM Jai Ram Thakur have an explanation for such low rates? Is Himachal under-reporting not just deaths, but also cases?

KERALA is No.20 even though the Communist state government has been touting the “Kerala model”. The Testing Rate is 1.49 times the national average but there are three flags — a red flag for a 70.4% lower Positivity Rate, another for a 55.8% lower CPM rate (both are connected), and a dark red flag for a 81.4% lower Fatality Rate. With a high population density, how are such low rates possible? CM Pinarayi Vijayan should clarify. Is Kerala under-reporting not just deaths, but also cases?

MIZORAM is No.21. The Testing Rate is 1.43 times the national average but there are three flags — a red flag for a 80% lower Positivity Rate, a dark red flag for a 71.5% lower CPM rate (both are connected), and another dark red flag for a Fatality Rate of ZERO, like Manipur and Nagaland!!! How is this possible? CM Zoramthanga should clarify.

GUJARAT is No.22. The Testing Rate is only 84% of the national average and there is a dark red flag for a Fatality Rate 2.5 times the national average. This is a shameful performance by CM Vijay Rupani who took over from none other than PM Modi.

ODISHA is No.23. The Testing Rate is only 83% of the national average and there are two red flags — one for a 53.6% CPM rate compared to the national average and the other for a 61% lower Fatality Rate. Can 5-term CM Naveen Patnaik kindly explain? Is Odisha also under-reporting not just deaths, but also cases?

MEGHALAYA is No.24. The Testing Rate is only 78% the national average and there are three flags — a red flag for a 78.8% lower Positivity Rate, a dark red flag for a 83.5% lower CPM rate (both are connected), and a red flag for a 52% lower Fatality Rate. Is Meghalaya also under-reporting not just deaths, but also cases? CM Conrad Sangma should clarify.

CHHATTISGARH is No.25. The Testing Rate is only 83% the national average and there are three flags — a red flag for a 72.7% lower Positivity Rate, a dark red flag for a 77.4% lower CPM rate (both are connected), and another dark red flag for a 71.8% lower Fatality Rate. Is Chhattisgarh also under-reporting not just deaths, but also cases? CM Bhupesh Baghel should clarify.

WEST BENGAL is No.26. The state has just one red flag for a 46.7% lower CPM rate but has done only 70% testing compared with the national average. Only 4 states have a lower testing rate. Is PM-aspirant Mamata Banerjee Didi proud of this?

UTTAR PRADESH is No.27. The Testing Rate is a pathetic 62% of the national average and there are two flags — an orange flag for a 58.9% lower Positivity Rate and a red flag for a 74.5% lower CPM rate (both are connected). Isn’t CM Yogi Adityanath supposed to be a good administrator? Then why such low testing?

MADHYA PRADESH is No.28. The Testing Rate is only 70% the national average and there are three flags — an orange flag for a 54% lower Positivity Rate, a red flag for a 67.6% lower CPM rate (both are connected), and another orange flag for a Fatality Rate which is 1.79 times of the national average. Why such a low CPM rate and such a high Fatality Rate? CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan should clarify.

TELANGANA is third-last at No.29. The Testing Rate is just 69% the national average (shame!) and there are three flags — a red flag for a Positivity Rate twice the national average, an orange flag for a 39.7% higher CPM rate (both are connected) and a red flag for a 48.6% lower Fatality Rate. With the high Positivity and CPM rates, there is no logical explanation for such a low Fatality Rate except that deaths are being under-reported. Will CM K. Chandrasekhar Rao kindly clarify.

JHARKHAND is second-last No.30. The Testing Rate is a pathetic 56% of the national average and there are three flags — a red flag for a 68.5% lower Positivity Rate, a dark red flag for a 82.2% lower CPM rate (both are connected), and another red flag for a 48% lower Fatality Rate. Is Jharkhand also under-reporting not just deaths, but also cases? CM Hemant Soren should answer.

BIHAR is last at No.31. The Testing Rate is an unbelievably low 30% of the national average and there are two red flags — one for a 73.9% lower CPM rate and another for a 61.6% lower Fatality Rate than the national average. Is Bihar also under-reporting not just deaths, but also cases? CM Nitish Kumar and Deputy CM Sushil Kumar Modi (BJP) should answer and also held accountable for the extremely low testing.

Since there has been a lot of politics in India on the management of the Coronavirus pandemic and since I have authored several political books, let me add some political commentary at the end.

BJP and its partners/supporters are in power in 19 of these 31 states/UTs. Of these, 7 are in the top ten, 6 in the middle ten, and 8 in the last eleven. Therefore, BJP’s performance is average. However, several BJP states seem to be suppressing data.

Congress and its partners are in power in 6 states/UTs. Of these, only 1 is in the top ten, 3 in the middle ten, and 2 in the last eleven. Congress’s performance is much worse than BJP. Rahul Gandhi should therefore stop lecturing PM Modi on how to manage Covid better and get his own house in order.

Other parties are also in power in 6 states/UTs. Of these, 2 are in the top ten, 1 in the middle ten, and 3 in the last eleven. Therefore, the other parties’ performance is also worse than BJP.

OTHER COVID-19 HEADLINES:

  • USA crossed 3.9 million (39 lakh) cases.
  • Brazil crossed 2.1 million cases.
  • India became the third country to cross 1.1 million cases.
  • South Africa overtook Peru to reach the No.5 rank in cases
    — it was No. 17 just 18 days ago.
  • Saudi Arabia became the 13th country to cross 2,50,000 cases.
  • Bangladesh and Colombia overtook Germany to reach the No.16 and No.17 rank in cases. Only 4 European countries — Russia, Spain, UK and Italy — are now in the Top 17.
  • Egypt overtook China and Indonesia to reach the No.24 rank in cases — China is now at the No.26 rank (SERIOUSLY!!!)
  • Brazil became the second country to cross 80,000 deaths.
  • South Africa became the 22nd country to cross 5,000 deaths.

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LATEST UPDATES (at 09:00 am UTC; 21 July 2020):

  • The world has crossed 14.874 million (1.487 crore) cases
  • The global death toll is over 6,13,650
  • With 11,56,189 cases and 28,117 deaths, India is No.3 in cases and No.8 in deaths.
  • India’s Maharashtra state, with 3,18,695 cases and 12,030 deaths, would rank No.9 in cases and No.12 in deaths if it were a country
  • 4 countries have crossed 7,50,000 cases (up from 0 on April 3)
  • 13 countries have crossed 2,50,000 cases (up from 1 on April 3)
  • 19 countries have crossed 1,50,000 cases (up from 1 on April 3)
  • 22 countries have crossed 1,00,000 cases (up from 3 on April 3)
  • 41 countries have crossed 50,000 cases (up from 8 on April 3)
  • 57 countries have crossed 25,000 cases (up from 11 on April 3)
  • 2 countries have crossed 80,000 deaths (up from 0 on April 3)
  • 8 countries have crossed 25,000 deaths (up from 0 on April 3)
  • 11 countries have crossed 10,000 deaths (up from 0 on April 3)
  • 22 countries have crossed 5,000 deaths (up from 5 on April 3)
  • 28 countries have crossed 2,500 deaths (up from 7 on April 3)
  • 42 countries have crossed 1,000 deaths (up from 10 on April 3)

 

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