I have been doing Data Analytics Studies on the Coronavirus Pandemic for 36 days. The 28 countries in this Study have been chosen as they are either amongst the 22 with the highest number of cases (over 13,500), or because they are amongst the 11 most populated nations on earth (over 125 million). It is because of the second reason that Indonesia, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Mexico, and Nigeria are part of the Study.
The Table with data from the chosen 28 countries comprises 2,186,216 COVID-19 cases (up 3.09% from 2,120,666 yesterday), which is 90.3% of the total 2,421,018 cases (up 3.16% from 2,346,819 yesterday) reported worldwide by 11:00 am UTC/GMT today, and is therefore more than a good reference sample.
Today’s comparison is between the seven day period 13–20 April with the seven day period 12–19 April. Total COVID-19 cases worldwide have gone up 1.31 times in seven days, while deaths have gone up 1.45 times. Cases in the 28 countries in my Study have gone up by 1.3 times.
Ignoring countries with less than 17,000 cases, in the last seven days (as has been the case for several days now), Russia has the highest “CDGR” (Compounded Daily Growth Rate) of 14.44% (down from yesterday’s 7-day CDGR of 15.35%). At the same CDGR, Russia will cross 50,000 cases in 1 day.
India has a CDGR of 9.66% (up from 9.16%), the second highest after Russia. At this CDGR, India will cross 20,000 cases in 2 days. In terms of rank in the no. of cases out of all countries (not just the 28 in this Study), India is at No.17 (up from No.22 on April 14).
Brazil has a CDGR of 8.36% (down from 8.42%) and will cross 50,000 cases in 4 days; Turkey 6.12% (down from 6.74%) will cross 100,000 in 3 days; UK 5.19% (down from 5.41%) will cross 150,000 in 5 days; Canada 4.55% (down from 4.59%) will cross 40,000 in 3 days; USA 4.53% (down from 4.77%) will cross 1 million in 7 days; Belgium 3.9% (up from 3.8%) will cross 50,000 in 6 days; Netherlands 3.55% (down from 3.75%) will cross 40,000 in 6 days; France 3% (up from 3.34%) will cross 175,000 in 5 days; Portugal 2.56% (up from 32.48%) will cross 25,000 in 9 days; Spain 2.41% (up from 2.4%) will cross 225,000 in 5 days; Iran 2.2% (down from 2.32%) will cross 90,000 in 4 days; Italy 1.95% (down from 2.08%) will cross 200,000 in 6 days; Germany 1.89% (down from 1.96%) will cross 150,000 in 2 days; and Switzerland 1.35% (up from 1.15%) will cross 30,000 cases in 6 days.
As I have been repeatedly saying, there is no point in writing about China, as it has either managed to control the disease, or is misreporting data.
All projections in the preceding four paras is subject to the condition that enough tests are conducted to match the pace of the disease’s growth trajectory, and it seems like most countries have enhanced their testing capabilities based on this.
In seven days, compared to the average CDGR of 3.77% for all 28 countries, the CDGR of the “Top 9” countries (the 9 with the highest CDGR) is 8.49%, for the “Middle 9” countries it is 4.58%, and for the “Bottom 10” countries it is 2.03%. However, if we were to remove China from the last group, the CDGR of the “Bottom 9” goes up to 2.24%.
Of the 498,871 new cases reported in these 28 countries in the last seven days, 90.7% are from the 14 countries with the most number of cases. As I said in each of my earlier posts on this subject, this only proves that much more testing has been done in these 14 countries (estimated 4,884 tests per million people excluding China), than the 14 others (estimated 762 tests per million). With just 294 tests per million residents, India remains much below the average of even the bottom 14 countries. India has a lower “Testing Rate” than even Pakistan.
IN INDIA, SUNami RISES IN THE WEST, SETS IN THE EAST
Which Countries have the most cases per 1000 residents?
Is Coronavirus Ready To Leave Planet Earth?
Beginning of End of Coronavirus in India?
Which Countries have the Highest Growth in Deaths?
Is something wrong with the way India is conducting tests or reporting data?
LATEST UPDATES (at 11:45 am UTC):
- The world has crossed 2.423 million cases
- The global death toll is over 166,000
- India has reached 17,874 cases and 568 deaths as per covid19india.org
- Turkey and Iran became the 7th and 8th countries to overtake China
- Spain became the second country to cross 200,000 cases
- Portugal became the 16th country to cross 20,000 cases
- 5 countries have crossed 125,000 cases (up from 1 on April 3)
- 9 countries have crossed 75,000 cases (up from 4 on April 3)
- 15 countries have crossed 25,000 cases (up from 11 on April 3)
- 19 countries have crossed 15,000 cases (up from 12 on April 3)
- 25 countries have crossed 10,000 cases
- 33 countries have crossed 7,500 cases
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43 countries have crossed 5,000 cases (up from 20 on April 3)
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46 countries have crossed 4,000 cases (up from 25 on April 3)
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51 countries have crossed 3,000 cases (up from 27 on April 3)
- USA became the first country to cross 40,000 deaths
- 5 countries have 15,000+ deaths (up from just 1 on April 3)
- 10 countries have 3000+ deaths (up from 7 on April 3)
- 15 countries have 1000+ deaths (up from 10 on April 3)
- 20 countries have 500+ deaths (up from 12 on April 3)
- 29 countries have 300+ deaths (up from 17 on April 3)