I have been doing Data Analytics Studies on the Coronavirus Pandemic for 37 days. The 28 countries in this Study have been chosen as they are either amongst the 22 with the highest number of cases (over 13,500), or because they are amongst the 11 most populated nations on earth (over 125 million). It is because of the second reason that Indonesia, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Mexico, and Nigeria are part of the Study.
The Table with data from the chosen 28 countries comprises 2,251,436 COVID-19 cases (up 2.98% from 2,186,216 yesterday), which is 90.1% of the total 2,499,011 cases (up 3.22% from 2,421,018 yesterday) reported worldwide by 11:00 am UTC/GMT today, and is therefore more than a good reference sample.
Today’s comparison is between the seven day period 14–21 April with the seven day period 13–20 April. Total COVID-19 cases worldwide have gone up 1.3 times in seven days, while deaths have gone up 1.38 times. Cases in the 28 countries in my Study have gone up by 1.29 times.
Ignoring countries with under 18,000 cases, in the last seven days, Russia has the highest “CDGR” (Compounded Daily Growth Rate) of 13.99% (down from yesterday’s 7-day CDGR of 14.44%). Russia has had the highest CDGR for at least 10 days. At the same CDGR, Russia will cross 75,000 cases in 3 days. One thing puzzles me. Russia is ranked No.10 in number of cases, but No.24 in number of deaths. What magic formula does Putin have to prevent COVID-19 patients from dying in Russia?
India has a CDGR of 8.45% (up from 9.66%), the second highest after Russia, as has also been the case for at least 10 days. At this CDGR, India will cross 25,000 cases in 4 days. In terms of rank in the no. of cases out of all countries (not just the 28 in this Study), India is still at No.17 (up from No.22 on April 14).
Brazil with a CDGR of 8.06% (down from 8.36%) will cross 50,000 cases in 3 days; Turkey 5.87% (down from 6.12%) will cross 100,000 in 2 days; UK 5.01% (down from 5.19%) will cross 150,000 in 4 days; Canada 4.5% (down from 4.55%) will cross 40,000 in 2 days; USA 4.39% (down from 4.53%) will cross 1 million in 6 days; Belgium 4% (up from 3.9%) will cross 50,000 in 6 days; Netherlands 3.33% (down from 3.55%) will cross 40,000 in 6 days; Portugal 2.59% (up from 2.56%) will cross 25,000 in 8 days; France 2.55% (down from 3%) will cross 175,000 in 5 days; Spain 2.43% (up from 2.41%) will cross 225,000 in 5 days; Iran 2.1% (down from 2.2%) will cross 90,000 in 3 days; Italy 1.84% (down from 1.95%) will cross 200,000 in 6 days; Germany 1.77% (down from 1.89%) will cross 150,000 in 2 days; and Switzerland 1.21% (down from 1.35%) will cross 30,000 cases in 6 days.
From the data of the last few days, it seems that, of the Top 15 countries with the most cases, Italy, Germany and Switzerland have been able to control the spread much better than the others.
As I have been repeatedly saying, there is no point in writing about China, as it has either managed to control the disease, or is misreporting data.
All projections in the preceding four paras is subject to the condition that enough tests are conducted to match the pace of the disease’s growth trajectory, and it seems like most countries have enhanced their testing capabilities based on this.
In seven days, compared to the average CDGR of 3.65% for all 28 countries, the CDGR of the “Top 9” countries (the 9 with the highest CDGR) is 8.17%, for the “Middle 9” countries it is 4.43%, and for the “Bottom 10” countries it is 1.91%. However, if we were to remove China from the last group, the CDGR of the “Bottom 9” goes up to 2.1%.
Of the 499,749 new cases reported in these 28 countries in the last seven days, 90.9% are from the 14 countries with the most number of cases. As I said in each of my earlier posts on this subject, this only proves that much more testing has been done in these 14 countries (estimated 5,024 tests per million people excluding China), than the 14 others (estimated 794 tests per million). With just 294 tests per million residents (as of yesterday), India remains much below the average of even the bottom 14 countries. India has a lower “Testing Rate” than even Pakistan.
LATEST UPDATES (at 12:15 pm UTC):
- The world has crossed 2.5 million cases
- The global death toll is over 171,700
- India has reached 19,040 cases and 605 deaths as per covid19india.org
- Turkey became the 7th country to cross 90,000 cases
- Russia became the 10th country to cross 50,000 cases
- Brazil and Belgium became the 11th and 12th to cross 40,000 cases
- 5 countries have crossed 125,000 cases (up from 1 on April 3)
- 9 countries have crossed 75,000 cases (up from 4 on April 3)
- 15 countries have crossed 25,000 cases (up from 11 on April 3)
- 20 countries have crossed 15,000 cases (up from 12 on April 3)
- 27 countries have crossed 10,000 cases
- 34 countries have crossed 7,500 cases
44 countries have crossed 5,000 cases (up from 20 on April 3)
47 countries have crossed 4,000 cases (up from 25 on April 3)
54 countries have crossed 3,000 cases (up from 27 on April 3)
- France became the 4th country (after USA, Italy & Spain) to cross 20,000 deaths
- 5 countries have 15,000+ deaths (up from just 1 on April 3)
- 10 countries have 3000+ deaths (up from 7 on April 3)
- 15 countries have 1000+ deaths (up from 10 on April 3)
- 21 countries have 500+ deaths (up from 12 on April 3)
- 29 countries have 300+ deaths (up from 17 on April 3)