USA has sadly become the first country to cross 50,000 COVID-related deaths and Turkey the seventh country to cross 100,000 cases.
Before I go further, I must mention that France has revised its case count downwards, for the second time in less than two weeks, supposedly because a data quality and verification process highlighted over-reporting and overestimation of cumulative cases. God alone knows what’s going on there. Also, China has not reported a single new death for 7 days – isn’t that wonderful?
I have been doing Data Analytics Studies on the Coronavirus Pandemic for 40 days. The 28 countries in this Study have been chosen as they are either amongst the 22 with the highest number of cases (over 14,800), or because they are amongst the 11 most populated nations on earth (over 125 million). It is because of the second reason that Indonesia, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Mexico, and Nigeria are part of the Study.
The Table with data from the chosen 28 countries comprises 2,468,584 COVID-19 cases (up 3.36% from 2,388,397 yesterday), which is 89.9% of the total 2,746,938 cases (up 3.4% from 2,656,622 yesterday) reported worldwide by 11:00 am UTC/GMT today, and is therefore more than a good reference sample.
Today’s comparison is between the seven day period 17–24 April with the seven day period 16–23 April. Total COVID-19 cases worldwide have gone up 1.26 times in seven days, while deaths have gone up 1.31 times. Cases in the 28 countries in this Study have gone up by 1.25 times.
Ignoring countries with under 20,000 cases, in the last seven days, Russia has the highest “CDGR” (Compounded Daily Growth Rate) of 11.51% (down from yesterday’s 7-day CDGR of 12.26%). Russia has had the highest CDGR for at least 13 days. At the same CDGR, Russia will cross 75,000 cases in 1-2 day. It still puzzles me that Russia is ranked No.10 in number of cases, but No.21 in number of deaths (up from No.24 on April 21). What magic formula does Putin have to prevent COVID-19 patients from dying in Russia?
India has a CDGR of 8.06% (up from 7.74%), the second highest after Russia, as has also been the case for at least 13 days. At this CDGR, India will cross 25,000 cases in 1 day. In terms of rank in no. of cases out of all countries (not just the 28 in this Study), India has moved up to No.16 (up from No.22 on April 14) like I predicted yesterday.
Brazil with a CDGR of 7.19% (up from 6.97%) crossed 50,000 cases a day earlier than expected and is now projected to cross 75,000 cases in 6 days; Peru 6.47% (up from 6.37%) will cross 25,000 in 3 days; Turkey 4.62% (down from 5.16%) crossed 100,000 as expected and will now cross 125,000 in 5 days; UK 4.26% (down from 4.44%) will cross 150,000 in 2 days; Canada 4.03% (down from 4.21%) will cross 50,000 in 5 days; USA 3.9% (down from 4.02%) will cross 1 million in 4 days; Italy 3.63% (almost double from 1.82%) will cross 200,000 in 2 days; Belgium 2.95% (down from 3%) will cross 50,000 in 5 days; Netherlands 2.92% (down from 3.09%) will cross 40,000 in 4 days; Spain 2.49% (up from 2.21%) will cross 225,000 in 1-2 days; Portugal 2.33% (up from 2.23%) will cross 25,000 in 5 days; Germany 1.5% (down from 1.61%) will cross 160,000 in 3 days; Iran 1.49% (down from 1.58%) will cross 90,000 in 2 days; and Switzerland 1.01% (up from 1.12%) will cross 30,000 in 5 days.
No projections for France, which has a negative growth of -0.6% (down from 1.3%) due to what I mentioned in the second para of this post.
As I have been repeatedly saying, there is no point in writing about China, as it has either managed to control the disease, or is misreporting data.
In seven days, compared to the average CDGR of 3.26% for all 28 countries, the CDGR of the “Top 9” countries (the 9 with the highest CDGR) is 8.69%, for the “Middle 9” countries it is 3.92%, and for the “Bottom 10” countries it is 1.21%. However, if we were to remove China from the last group, the CDGR of the “Bottom 9” goes up to 1.69%.
Of the 496,954 new cases reported in these 28 countries in the last seven days, 89.7% are from the 14 countries with the most number of cases. As I said in each of my earlier posts on this subject, this only proves that much more testing has been done in these 14 countries (estimated 5,867 tests per million people excluding China), than the 14 others (estimated 947 tests per million). With just 397 tests per million residents, India remains much below the average of even the bottom 14 countries. India has a lower “Testing Rate” than even Pakistan.
On April 22, I had said at the beginning of my daily update that Peru, Saudi Arabia and Singapore seem to be emerging as the new hotspots of COVID-19, and it is important to keep an eye on how fast cases in these countries are climbing. So I have been keeping an alert eye on them. Peru had a 17.25% growth in cases in two days, Saudi Arabia 19.77%, and Singapore 22.5%.
LATEST UPDATES (at 12:45 pm UTC):
- The world has crossed 2.75 million cases
- The global death toll is over 192,200
- India has reached 23,519 cases and 742 deaths as per covid19india.org and overtook Portugal to the No.16 position in number of cases
- India’s Maharashtra state, with 6,427 cases, would rank No.44 in the world if it were a country
- Brazil became the 11th country to cross 50,000 cases
- 6 countries have crossed 125,000 cases (up from 1 on April 3)
- 9 countries have crossed 75,000 cases (up from 4 on April 3)
- 15 countries have crossed 25,000 cases (up from 11 on April 3)
- 22 countries have crossed 15,000 cases (up from 16 on April 16)
- 32 countries have crossed 10,000 cases (up from 23 on April 16)
- 38 countries have crossed 7,500 cases (up from 26 on April 16)
46 countries have crossed 5,000 cases (up from 20 on April 16)
- Sweden became the 14th country to cross 2,000 deaths
- 5 countries have 15,000+ deaths (up from just 1 on April 3)
- 11 countries have 3000+ deaths (up from 7 on April 3)
- 16 countries have 1000+ deaths (up from 10 on April 3)
- 25 countries have 500+ deaths (up from 16 on April 16)