Before I proceed further, it is important to mention that Ecuador reported 11,536 new COVID-19 cases in the last 24 hours, thus propelling the country into the Top 20 worldwide in terms of number of cases. I have therefore added Ecuador in the Study and removed Austria as well as Israel, which are joint No.22 in no. of cases. All data of the past and present has been revised accordingly.
Data from Spain has not been updated in the last 24 hours, which will definitely skew all the statistical analysis.
I have been doing Data Analytics Studies on the Coronavirus Pandemic for 41 days. The 27 countries in this Study have been chosen as they are either amongst the 21 with the highest number of cases (over 17,500), or because they are amongst the 11 most populated nations on earth (over 125 million). It is because of the second reason that Indonesia, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Mexico, and Nigeria are part of the Study.
The Table with data from the chosen 27 countries comprises 2,537,469 COVID-19 cases (up 3.58% from 2,449,814 yesterday), which is 89.1% of the total 2,846,536 cases (up 3.63% from 2,746,938 yesterday) reported worldwide by 11:00 am UTC/GMT today, and is therefore more than a good reference sample.
Today’s comparison is between the seven day period 18–25 April with the seven day period 17–24 April. Total COVID-19 cases worldwide have gone up 1.26 times in seven days, while deaths have gone up 1.28 times. Cases in the 27 countries in this Study have gone up by 1.25 times.
Ignoring countries with under 20,000 cases and also ignoring Ecuador, in the last seven days, Russia has the highest “CDGR” (Compounded Daily Growth Rate) of 10.62% (down from yesterday’s 7-day CDGR of 11.51%). Russia has had the highest CDGR for at least 14 days. At the same CDGR, Russia will cross 75,000 cases in 1 day. It still puzzles me that Russia is ranked No.10 in number of cases, but No.21 in number of deaths (up from No.24 on April 21). What magic formula does Putin have to prevent COVID-19 patients from dying in Russia?
India has a CDGR of 7.73% (down from 8.06%), the second highest after Russia, as has been the case for 14 days. At this CDGR, India will cross 30,000 cases in 3 days. In terms of rank in no. of cases out of all countries (not just the 27 in this Study), India is at No.16 (up from No.22 on April 14).
Brazil with a CDGR of 6.75% (down from 7.19%) is projected to cross 75,000 cases in 6 days; Peru 5.98% (down from 6.47%) will cross 25,000 in 3 days; Turkey 4.22% (down from 4.62%) will cross 125,000 in 5 days; UK 4.04% (down from 4.26%) will cross 150,000 in 2 days; Canada 3.99% (down from 4.03%) will cross 50,000 in 4 days; USA 3.86% (down from 3.9%) will cross 1 million in 3 days; Belgium 2.87% (down from 2.95%) will cross 50,000 in 4 days; Netherlands 2.64% (down from 2.92%) will cross 40,000 in 4 days; Portugal 2.12% (down from 2.33%) will cross 25,000 in 5 days; Spain 2.04% (down from 2.49%) will cross 225,000 in 2 days but this may change as Spain has not updated data for 24 hours; Italy 1.62% (down from 3.63%) will cross 200,000 in 3 days; Iran 1.43% (down from 1.49%) will cross 90,000 in 2 days; Germany 1.33% (down from 1.5%) will cross 160,000 in 3 days; France 1.11% (up from -0.6%) will cross 165,000 in 3 days; and Switzerland 0.93% (up from 1.01%) will cross 30,000 in 5 days.
As I have been repeatedly saying, there is no point in writing about China, as it has either managed to control the disease, or is misreporting data.
In seven days, compared to the average CDGR of 3.24% for all 28 countries, the CDGR of the “Top 9” countries (the 9 with the highest CDGR) is 8.96%, for the “Middle 9” countries it is 3.88%, and for the “Bottom 9” countries it is 1.45%. However, if we were to remove China from the last group, the CDGR of the “Bottom 8” goes up to 1.59%.
Of the 507,140 new cases reported in these 27 countries in the last seven days, 87.3% are from the 14 countries with the most number of cases. As I said in each of my earlier posts on this subject, this only proves that much more testing has been done in these 14 countries (estimated 13,567 tests per million people excluding China), than the 13 others (estimated 802 tests per million). With just 424 tests per million residents, India remains much below the average of even the bottom 14 countries. India has a lower “Testing Rate” than even Pakistan.
On April 22, I had said at the beginning of my daily update that Peru, Saudi Arabia, Singapore and Ecuador seem to be emerging as the new hotspots of COVID-19, and it is important to keep an eye on how fast cases in these countries are climbing. So I have been keeping an alert eye on them. Peru had a 21.37% growth in cases in three days, Saudi Arabia 29.84%, Singapore 32.33% and Ecuador 118.49%.
LATEST UPDATES (at 1:00 pm UTC):
- The world has crossed 2.85 million cases
- The global death toll is over 198,000
- India has reached 25,029 cases and 787 deaths as per covid19india.org
- India’s Maharashtra state, with 6,817 cases, would rank No.43 in the world if it were a country
- 6 countries have crossed 125,000 cases (up from 1 on April 3)
- 9 countries have crossed 75,000 cases (up from 4 on April 3)
- 16 countries have crossed 25,000 cases (up from 11 on April 3)
- 24 countries have crossed 15,000 cases (up from 16 on April 16)
- 32 countries have crossed 10,000 cases (up from 23 on April 16)
- 38 countries have crossed 7,500 cases (up from 26 on April 16)
46 countries have crossed 5,000 cases (up from 20 on April 16)
- 5 countries have 15,000+ deaths (up from just 1 on April 3)
- 11 countries have 3000+ deaths (up from 7 on April 3)
- 17 countries have 1000+ deaths (up from 10 on April 3)
- 25 countries have 500+ deaths (up from 16 on April 16)