Before I start, let me say that I have been doing Data Analytics Studies on the Coronavirus Pandemic for 52 days and have written 122 research-based blog posts on COVID-19 in these 52 days.
Look at the graph of the growth rate and the 7-day moving average in the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths worldwide in the last 15 days. All the data is based as reported at the same time (the previous Midnight UTC/GMT) every day.
Compared to the previous day, the daily growth rate in number of cases went down for 7 consecutive days from April 15 to 21, followed by 3 consecutive days of increases on April 22, 23, and 24. Then there were 3 consecutive days of declines on April 25, 26, and 27. This was followed by 4 days (April 28, 29, 30 & May 1) of increases. The last 4 days (May 2, 3, 4 & 5) have seen declines compared to the previous day.
What is much more important is the 7-day moving average (“7DMA”), as this shows any kind of trend much better than day-by-day numbers. The 7DMA has shown 34 uninterrupted days of declines since April 2.
The story with deaths is slightly different. The daily growth graph is going up and down like a see-saw, as the orange line in the graph shows. However, the 7DMA for deaths also shows 34 uninterrupted days of declines since April 2.
If the disease is indeed on its way out, one big reason is definitely the strict social distancing measures (like lockdown) imposed on over half the world’s population. Who’s to tell what could happen if such measures are lifted or eased — as has already been done or is being discussed — in the countries most affected by Coronavirus, including USA, Spain, Italy, France, Germany, Belgium, Austria, Switzerland, Norway, and Denmark, amongst several others.
I will shortly write a separate post on the subject of the daily and 7DMA trends in cases and deaths in India.
LATEST UPDATES (at 4:30 pm UTC):
- The world has crossed 3.777 million cases
- The Top 20 countries have together crossed 3.25 million cases
- The global death toll is over 261,200
- India has reached 52,458 cases and 1,784 deaths as per covid19india.org
- In terms of rank in no. of cases, India is at No.13 (up from No.22 on April 14)
- India’s Maharashtra state, with 16,758 cases, would rank No.29 in the world if it were a country (up from No.44 on April 24)
- Spain became the 2nd country (after USA) to cross 250,000 cases, UK the 4th to cross 200,000 cases, and Iran the 10th to cross 100,000 cases
- 7 countries have crossed 150,000 cases (up from 1 on April 8)
- 10 countries have crossed 100,000 cases (up from 3 on April 3)
- 15 countries have crossed 50,000 cases (up from 8 on April 3)
- 21 countries have crossed 25,000 cases (up from 11 on April 3)
- 32 countries have crossed 15,000 cases (up from 16 on April 16)
- 39 countries have crossed 10,000 cases (up from 23 on April 16)
- 48 countries have crossed 7,500 cases (up from 26 on April 16)
54 countries have crossed 5,000 cases (up from 20 on April 16)
- USA became the first country to cross 70,000 deaths, UK the 2nd to cross 30,000 deaths and Canada the 12th to cross 4,000 deaths
- 5 countries have crossed 25,000 deaths (up from 0 on April 3)
- 10 countries have crossed 5,000 deaths (up from 5 on April 3)
- 15 countries have crossed 2,500 deaths (up from 7 on April 3)
- 22 countries have crossed 1,000 deaths (up from 10 on April 3)
- 30 countries have crossed 500 deaths (up from 16 on April 16)