India’s Coronavirus Graph Does Not Follow Declining Global Curve

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Before I start, let me say that I have been doing Data Analytics Studies on the Coronavirus Pandemic for 52 days and have written 123 research-based blog posts on COVID-19 in these 52 days.

Look at the graph of the daily growth rate and the 7-day moving average in the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths in India in the last 15 days. All the data is based as reported at the same time (the previous Midnight UTC/GMT or 05:30 am IST) every day.

The daily growth rate in the number of cases (blue line in the graph) shows a zig-zag curve (ups and downs) for the entire period of 15 days. However, what is much more important is the 7-day moving average (“7DMA”), as this shows a trend much better than day-by-day numbers.

The 7DMA (green line in the graph) had a declining or flat curve for 26 days since April 4, except for small upticks on April 13 and 19. However, there have been 4 upticks in the last 5 days, with an average of 1,908 new cases per day. THIS IS NOT GOOD NEWS AT ALL, considering that it does not account for what could happen in the next few days due to the easing of lockdown restrictions wef May 4.

The story with the number of deaths is somewhat different. While the daily growth curve (red line) has been swinging up and down like the growth curve for cases, the 7DMA in the cases of deaths (black line) showed a gradual decline for 15 days from April 12 to 26, there have been 7 days of upticks in the last 9 days (Apr 27 to May 5).

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has spoken about Jaan bhi, Jahaan bhi, that is meant to give equal weightage to managing lives and the economy. But will he maintain this policy if the upward trend in cases and deaths continues for a few more days?

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LATEST UPDATES (at 5:15 pm UTC):

  • The world has crossed 3.778 million cases
  • The Top 20 countries have together crossed 3.25 million cases
  • The global death toll is over 261,300
  • India has reached 52,559 cases and 1,785 deaths as per
  • In terms of rank in no. of cases, India is at No.13 (up from No.22 on April 14)
  • India’s Maharashtra state, with 16,758 cases, would rank No.29 in the world if it were a country (up from No.44 on April 24)
  • Spain became the 2nd country (after USA) to cross 250,000 cases, UK the 4th to cross 200,000 cases, and Iran the 10th to cross 100,000 cases
  • 7 countries have crossed 150,000 cases (up from 1 on April 8)
  • 10 countries have crossed 100,000 cases (up from 3 on April 3)
  • 15 countries have crossed 50,000 cases (up from 8 on April 3)
  • 21 countries have crossed 25,000 cases (up from 11 on April 3)
  • 32 countries have crossed 15,000 cases (up from 16 on April 16)
  • 39 countries have crossed 10,000 cases (up from 23 on April 16)
  • 48 countries have crossed 7,500 cases (up from 26 on April 16)
  • 54 countries have crossed 5,000 cases (up from 20 on April 16)

  • USA became the first country to cross 70,000 deaths, UK the 2nd to cross 30,000 deaths and Canada the 12th to cross 4,000 deaths
  • 5 countries have crossed 25,000 deaths (up from 0 on April 3)
  • 10 countries have crossed 5,000 deaths (up from 5 on April 3)
  • 15 countries have crossed 2,500 deaths (up from 7 on April 3)
  • 22 countries have crossed 1,000 deaths (up from 10 on April 3)
  • 30 countries have crossed 500 deaths (up from 16 on April 16)

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