India Overtakes Italy — to No.6 Rank

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I have been doing Data Analytics Studies on the Coronavirus Pandemic for 86 days and have written 138 research-based blog posts on COVID-19 in these 86 days.

Around midnight last night in India, the world’s second most populated nation reported that it had crossed 234,531 cases, thus overtaking Italy to reach the No.6 rank worldwide in number of COVID-19 cases. The current case count is 237,572.

This is a slap in the face of several BJP leaders who had continuously taunted Sonia Gandhi, her son Rahul Gandhi, and the Congress party, saying that Sonia’s birth country Italy was much worse affected than India. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP party president J.P. Nadda should ensure such comments are not made in the future, lest they come back to bite them like this.

The only positive point in favour of India, in its comparison with Italy, is that India has just 172 cases per million residents (CPM), compared to Italy’s 3,870. However, Italy has conducted 68,045 tests per million (TPM) compared to India’s significantly lower 3,281.

On May 1, India was No.16 worldwide in number of cases. On May 4, India overtook the Netherlands to reach No.15. On May 7, India overtook Belgium to reach No.14. On May 11, India overtook Peru to reach the No.13 rank. The very next day (May 12), India overtook Canada to reach No.12. On May 16, India overtook China to reach No.11. On May 25, India overtook Iran to reach No.10. On May 29, India overtook Turkey to reach the No.9 rank. On June 1, India overtook Germany and France to reach the No.7 rank.

For the nth time (not less than 5 in 86 days), France has revised its figures downwards. From 189,220 cases and No.8 rank around noon on June 2, the number went down to 151,325 cases and No.12 rank on June 3, a huge drop of 37,900 cases or almost exactly 20%. Is France becoming another China in transparency??? In reducing its case count but not its death count, France achieved the distinction of having the world’s highest Fatality Rate (number of positive cases which did not survive) of 19.12%, amongst 70 countries with a minimum of 5,000 positive cases reported.

Six days ago, I had written that it will take India 6 days to overtake Italy to reach the No.6 rank, and 11 days to overtake both UK and Spain to reach the No.4 rank in the world. My first prediction has come correct. Now, India is expected to take 5 more days to overtake both UK and Spain.

Yes, India is expected to have the world’s fourth highest number of Coronavirus cases — after USA, Brazil and Russia — in just 5 more days, or by June 11. However, at just 172 CPM, India is way behind USA (5,942), Brazil (3,041), and Russia (3,143). But we must also factor that India has conducted far fewer TPMs (3,281) than USA (61,264), Brazil (50,350), and Russia (84,897).


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LATEST UPDATES (at 11:00 am UTC; June 6, 2020):

  • The world has crossed 6.871 million cases
  • The global death toll is over 398,600
  • India has reported 237,756 cases and 6,650 deaths so far. In terms of number of cases, India is at the No.6 rank in the world (up from No.22 on April 14). India’s Maharashtra state, with 80,229 cases, would rank No.19 in the world if it were a country (up from No.44 on April 24)
  • Mexico became the 14th country to cross 100,000 cases
  • Peru overtook Germany to reach the No.8 rank in number of cases
  • Pakistan overtook China to reach the No.17 rank in number of cases
  • Bangladesh overtook Belgium to reach the No.20 rank in number of cases
  • Sweden and Ecuador became the 25th and 26th countries to cross 40,000 cases
  • 5 countries have crossed 250,000 cases (up from 0 on April 1)
  • 12 countries have crossed 150,000 cases (up from 1 on April 3)
  • 14 countries have crossed 100,000 cases (up from 3 on April 3)
  • 21 countries have crossed 50,000 cases (up from 8 on April 3)
  • 37 countries have crossed 25,000 cases (up from 11 on April 3)
  • 47 countries have crossed 15,000 cases (up from 16 on April 16)
  • 55 countries have crossed 10,000 cases (up from 23 on April 16)
  • UK became the 2nd country (after USA) to cross 40,000 deaths
  • Iran became the 10th country to cross 8,000 deaths
  • India and Netherlands became the 12th and 13th to cross 6,000 deaths
  • Peru became the 15th country to cross 5,000 deaths
  • 6 countries have crossed 25,000 deaths (up from 0 on April 3)
  • 15 countries have crossed 5,000 deaths (up from 5 on April 3)
  • 19 countries have crossed 2,500 deaths (up from 7 on April 3)
  • 29 countries have crossed 1,000 deaths (up from 10 on April 3)
  • 41 countries have crossed 500 deaths (up from 16 on April 16)


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