Before I begin, please let me apologise for not posting yesterday as I was unwell.
I must also mention that Spain has not updated data for the last 24 hours, so this may skew some of the statistical analysis in today’s update.
I have been doing Data Analytics Studies on the Coronavirus Pandemic for 45 days. The 26 countries in this Study have been chosen as they are either amongst the 20 with the highest number of cases (over 20,000), or because they are amongst the 11 most populated nations on earth (over 125 million). It is because of the second reason that Indonesia, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Mexico, and Nigeria are part of the Study, even though they are not in the Top 20 in no. of cases.
Upto the last update, I had 27 countries, but due to Saudi Arabia shooting into the Top 20, I have now included this Arab nation and removed Ireland and Sweden from the Study. All data has been accordingly adjusted.
The Table with data from the chosen 27 countries comprises 2,781,274 COVID-19 cases (up 2.17% from 2,722,090 yesterday), which is 88.2% of the total 3,151,603 cases (up 2.22% from 3,083,157 yesterday) reported worldwide by 11:00 am UTC/GMT today, and is therefore more than a good reference sample.
Today’s comparison is between the seven day period 22–29 April with the seven day period 21–28 April. Total COVID-19 cases worldwide have gone up 22.7% in seven days, while deaths have gone up 22.6%. Cases in the 26 countries in this Study have gone up by 21.9%.
Ignoring countries with under 30,000 cases, Peru has now dethroned Russia as the country with the highest “CDGR” (Compounded Daily Growth Rate) of 8.31% (down from yesterday’s 7-day CDGR of 9.38%). Russia had the highest CDGR for 17 days. On April 26, Peru had dethroned India from the No.2 spot in terms of CDGR. At the same CDGR, Peru will cross 40,000 cases in 4 days.
With a CDGR of 8% (down from yesterday’s 7-day CDGR of 8.53%), Russia will cross 100,000 cases in 1 day; Brazil 7.77% (up from 7.44%) will cross 75,000 cases in 1 day; India 6.42% (down from 6.61%) will cross 40,000 cases in 4 days; Canada 3.84% (down from 4.01%) will cross 60,000 in 5 days; USA 3.41% (down from 3.52%) will cross 1.25 million cases in 6 days; UK 3.22% (down from 3.35%) will cross 175,000 cases in 3 days; Turkey 2.63% (down from 3.05%) will cross 125,000 in 4 days; Belgium 1.92% (down from 2.09%) will cross 50,000 in 3 days; Netherlands 1.7% (down from 1.95%) will cross 40,000 in 3 days; Spain 1.55% (down from 1.85%) will cross 250,000 in 5 days (but this may change as Spain has not updated data in the last 24 hours); Italy 1.31% (down from 1.38%) will cross 225,000 in 9 days; Iran 1.23% (down from 1.26%) will cross 100,000 in 6 days; Germany 1.06% (down from 1.1%) will cross 175,000 in 9 days; and France 0.7% (down from 0.93%) will cross 175,000 in 8 days.
As I have been repeatedly saying, there is no point in writing about China, as it has either managed to control the disease, or is misreporting data.
In seven days, compared to the average CDGR of 2.87% for all 26 countries, the CDGR of the “Top 9” countries (the 9 with the highest CDGR) is 8.1%, for the “Middle 9” countries it is 3.28%, and for the “Bottom 8” countries it is 1.1%. However, if we were to remove China from the last group, the CDGR of the “Bottom 7” goes up to 1.2%.
Of the 500,198 new cases reported in these 26 countries in the last seven days, 84.9% are from the 13 countries with the most number of cases. As I said in each of my earlier posts on this subject, this only proves that much more testing has been done in these 13 countries (estimated 15,356 tests per million people excluding China), than the 13 others (estimated 1,047 tests per million). With just 564 tests per million residents, India remains much below the average of even the bottom 13 countries, and has a lower “Testing Rate” than even Pakistan.
On April 22, I had said that Peru, Saudi Arabia, Singapore and Ecuador seem to be emerging as the new hotspots of COVID-19, and it is important to keep an eye on how fast cases in these countries are climbing. Peru, Saudi Arabia and Ecuador have already climbed into the Top 20 in no. of cases, so I will automatically be keeping an eye on them. Singapore had a 63.9% growth in cases in 7 days and has already reached No.25 globally.
On April 26, I added Romania and Belarus, and on April 27, I added Qatar. Romania does not seem to be a major worry. Belarus had a 27.3% growth in cases in just 3 days, while Qatar had a 27.4% growth. I shall keep a watch over them over the next few days.
LATEST UPDATES (at 1:00 pm UTC):
- The world has crossed 3.16 million cases
- The global death toll is over 219,200
- India has reached 31,656 cases and 1,010 deaths as per covid19india.org In terms of rank in no. of cases, India is at No.15 (up from No.22 on April 14).
- India’s Maharashtra state, with 9,318 cases, would rank No.38 in the world if it were a country (up from No.44 on April 24)
- Italy became the 3rd country (after USA and Spain) to cross 200,000 cases
- UK overtook Germany to the 5th rank in no. of cases
- Brazil became the 11th country to cross 70,000 cases and Canada the 12th to cross 50,000 cases
- India and Peru both overtook Switzerland in number of cases
- 6 countries have crossed 150,000 cases (up from 1 on April 8)
- 10 countries have crossed 75,000 cases (up from 4 on April 3)
- 17 countries have crossed 25,000 cases (up from 11 on April 3)
- 27 countries have crossed 15,000 cases (up from 16 on April 16)
- 35 countries have crossed 10,000 cases (up from 23 on April 16)
- 42 countries have crossed 7,500 cases (up from 26 on April 16)
49 countries have crossed 5,000 cases (up from 20 on April 16)
- Belgium became the 6th country to cross 7,500 deaths and Brazil the 9th to cross 5,000 deaths
- 5 countries have 20,000+ deaths (up from just 1 on April 3)
- 9 countries have 5000+ deaths (up from 5 on April 3)
- 13 countries have 2500+ deaths (up from 7 on April 3)
- 18 countries have 1000+ deaths (up from 10 on April 3)
- 27 countries have 500+ deaths (up from 16 on April 16)