UK passes France; Brazil passes China — Growth 24 April–1 May Vs. 23–30 April

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I have been doing Data Analytics Studies on the Coronavirus Pandemic for 47 days and have written 115 research-based blog posts on COVID-19 in these 47 days.

The 26 countries in this Study have been chosen as they are either amongst the 20 with the highest number of cases (over 22,500), or because they are amongst the 11 most populated nations on earth (over 125 million). It is because of the second reason that Indonesia, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Mexico, and Nigeria are part of the Study, even though they are not in the Top 20 in number of cases.

The Table with data from the chosen 26 countries comprises 2,929,727 COVID-19 cases (up 2.69% from 2,852,907 yesterday), which is 88.1% of the total 3,325,620 cases (up 2.78% from 3,235,722 yesterday) reported worldwide by 11:00 am UTC/GMT today, and is therefore more than a good reference sample.

Today’s comparison is between the seven day period 24 April–1 May with the seven day period 23–30 April. Global COVID-19 cases have gone up 21.4% in seven days, while deaths have gone up 20.6%. This is the first time that growth in deaths is lower than growth in cases. Cases in the 26 countries in this Study have gone up by 20.5%.

Ignoring countries with under 35,000 cases, for the third day now, Peru the highest “CDGR” (Compounded Daily Growth Rate) of 8.48% (up from yesterday’s 7-day CDGR of 8.43%). Earlier, Russia had the highest CDGR for 17 days. At the same CDGR, Peru will cross 50,000 cases in 4 days.

With a CDGR of 8.2% (up from yesterday’s 7-day CDGR of 8.05%), Brazil will cross 100,000 cases in 2 days; Russia 7.58% (down from 7.84%) will cross 125,000 in 2 days; India 5.88% (down from 6.42%) will cross 40,000 in 3 days; Canada 3.41% (down from 3.63%) will cross 60,000 in 4 days; UK 3.12% (up from 3.09%) will cross 200,000 in 6 days; USA 3.06% (down from 3.28%) will cross 1.25 million in 5 days; Turkey 2.4% (down from 2.54%) will cross 125,000 in 2 days; Belgium 1.46% (down from 1.81%) will cross 50,000 in 2 days; Netherlands 1.38% (down from 1.55%) will cross 40,000 in 2 days; Spain 1.24% (down from 1.53%) will cross 250,000 in 4 days; Iran 1.17% (down from 1.21%) will cross 100,000 in 4 days; Italy 1.13% (down from 1.2%) will cross 225,000 in 9 days;  Germany 0.88% (down from 0.99%) will cross 175,000 in 9 days; and France 0.79% (up from 0.77%) will cross 175,000 in 6 days.

There is no point in writing about China, as it has either managed to control the disease, or is misreporting data. Of the countries with 35,000+ cases, Belgium, Netherlands, Spain, Iran, Italy, Germany, and France seem to be managing the disease quite well.

In seven days, compared to the average CDGR of 2.7% for all 26 countries, the CDGR of the “Top 9” countries (the 9 with the highest CDGR) is 7.99%, for the “Middle 9” countries it is 3%, and for the “Bottom 8” countries it is 0.96%. However, if we were to remove China from the last group, the CDGR of the “Bottom 7” goes up to 1.05%.

Of the 499,173 new cases reported in these 26 countries in the last seven days, 84.2% are from the 13 countries with the most number of cases. This only proves that much more testing has been done in these 13 countries (estimated 16,945 tests per million people excluding China), than the 13 others (estimated 1,164 tests per million). With just 661 tests per million residents, India remains much below the average of even the bottom 13 countries, and has a lower “Testing Rate” than even Pakistan.

On April 22, I had said that Ecuador, Peru, Saudi Arabia, and Singapore seem to be emerging as the new hotspots of COVID-19, and it is important to keep an eye on them. Ecuador, Peru, and Saudi Arabia are now in the Top 20 in number of cases. It is interesting to note that Ecuador and Peru are neighbours. Singapore had a 77.2% growth in cases in 9 days. On April 26 & 27, I added Belarus and Qatar to the list of countries to watch out for. Belarus had 46.3% growth in cases in 5 days, while Qatar had 30.4% growth in 4 days. I shall keep a watch over them over the next few days.

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LATEST UPDATES (at 1:30 pm UTC):

  • The world has crossed 3.33 million cases
  • The global death toll is over 234,700
  • India has reached 35,447 cases and 1,16- deaths as per
  • In terms of rank in no. of cases, India is at No.15 (up from No.22 on April 14).
  • India’s Maharashtra state, with 10,498 cases, would rank No.36 in the world if it were a country (up from No.44 on April 24)
  • UK overtook France to reach No.4 rank in number of cases
  • Brazil overtook China to reach No.10 rank in number of cases
  • 6 countries have crossed 150,000 cases (up from 1 on April 8)
  • 11 countries have crossed 75,000 cases (up from 4 on April 3)
  • 18 countries have crossed 25,000 cases (up from 11 on April 3)
  • 28 countries have crossed 15,000 cases (up from 16 on April 16)
  • 37 countries have crossed 10,000 cases (up from 23 on April 16)
  • 43 countries have crossed 7,500 cases (up from 26 on April 16)
  • 51 countries have crossed 5,000 cases (up from 20 on April 16)

  • Brazil became the 9th country to cross 6,000 deaths
  • 5 countries have 20,000+ deaths (up from just 1 on April 3)
  • 9 countries have 5000+ deaths (up from 5 on April 3)
  • 14 countries have 2500+ deaths (up from 7 on April 3)
  • 21 countries have 1000+ deaths (up from 10 on April 3)
  • 27 countries have 500+ deaths (up from 16 on April 16)

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