Covid-19 Data Analytics Study — Growth 25 April–2 May Vs. 24 April–1 May

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I have been doing Data Analytics Studies on the Coronavirus Pandemic for 48 days and have written 116 research-based blog posts on COVID-19 in these 48 days.

The 26 countries in this Study have been chosen as they are either amongst the 20 with the highest number of cases (over 24,000), or because they are amongst the 11 most populated nations on earth (over 125 million). It is because of the second reason that Indonesia, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Mexico, and Nigeria are part of the Study, even though they are not in the Top 20 in number of cases.

The Table with data from the chosen 26 countries comprises 3,011,922 COVID-19 cases (up 2.81% from 2,929,727 yesterday), which is 88.1% of the total 3,417,903 cases (up 2.77% from 3,325,620 yesterday) reported worldwide by 11:00 am UTC/GMT today, and is therefore more than a good reference sample.

Today’s comparison is between the seven day period 25 April–2 May with the seven day period 24 April–1 May. Global COVID-19 cases have gone up 20.1% in seven days, while deaths have gone up 19.5%. Cases in the 26 countries in this Study have gone up by 19.4%.

Ignoring countries with under 35,000 cases, for the fourth day now, Peru has the highest “CDGR” (Compounded Daily Growth Rate) of 9.35% (up from yesterday’s 7-day CDGR of 8.48%). Earlier, Russia had the highest CDGR for 17 consecutive days. At the same CDGR, Peru will cross 50,000 cases in 3 days.

With a CDGR of 7.93% (up from yesterday’s 7-day CDGR of 8.2%), Brazil will cross 100,000 cases in 2 days; Russia 7.54% (down from 7.58%) will cross 150,000 in 3 days; India 6.07% (up from 5.88%) will cross 40,000 in 2 days; Canada 3.29% (down from 3.41%) will cross 60,000 in 3 days; UK 3.08% (down from 3.12%) will cross 200,000 in 4 days; USA 2.91% (down from 3.06%) will cross 1.25 million in 4 days; Turkey 2.23% (down from 2.4%) will cross 125,000 in 1 day; Belgium 1.27% (down from 1.47%) will cross 50,000 in 1 day; Netherlands 1.23% (down from 1.38%) will cross 40,000 in 1 day; Spain 1.18% (down from 1.24%) will cross 250,000 in 3 days; Iran 1.1% (down from 1.17%) will cross 100,000 in 4 days; Italy 1.04% (down from 1.13%) will cross 225,000 in 8 days;  Germany 0.81% (down from 0.88%) will cross 175,000 in 8 days; and France 0.66% (down from 0.79%) will cross 175,000 in 7 days.

There is no point in writing about China, as it has either managed to control the disease, or is misreporting data. Of the countries with 35,000+ cases, Belgium, Netherlands, Spain, Iran, Italy, Germany, and France seem to be managing the disease quite well.

In seven days, compared to the average CDGR of 2.57% for all 26 countries, the CDGR of the “Top 9” countries (the 9 with the highest CDGR) is 7.45%, for the “Middle 9” countries it is 2.79%, and for the “Bottom 8” countries it is 0.88%. However, if we were to remove China from the last group, the CDGR of the “Bottom 7” goes up to 0.96%.

Of the 489,910 new cases reported in these 26 countries in the last seven days, 85.3% are from the 13 countries with the most number of cases. This is one proof that much more testing has been done in these 13 countries (estimated 18,037 tests per million people excluding China), than the 13 others (estimated 1,271 tests per million). With just 715 tests per million residents, India remains much below the average of even the bottom 13 countries, and has a lower “Testing Rate” than even Pakistan.

On April 22, I had said that Ecuador, Peru, Saudi Arabia, and Singapore seem to be emerging as the new hotspots of COVID-19, and it is important to keep an eye on them. Ecuador, Peru, and Saudi Arabia are now in the Top 20 in number of cases. It is interesting to note that Ecuador and Peru are neighbours. Singapore had a 87.4% growth in cases in 10 days. On April 26 & 27, I added Belarus and Qatar to the list of countries to watch out for. Belarus had 55.6% growth in cases in 6 days, while Qatar had 37% growth in 5 days. I shall keep a watch over them over the next few days.

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India’s Infection Rate is Low because Testing is Still Very Low

Which Countries have the Highest Growth in Deaths?

LATEST UPDATES (at 1:00 pm UTC):

  • The world has crossed 3.424 million cases
  • The Top 23 countries have together crossed 3 million cases
  • The global death toll is over 240,300
  • India has reached 37,654 cases and 1,230 deaths as per
  • In terms of rank in no. of cases, India is at No.16 (up from No.22 on April 14)
  • India’s Maharashtra state, with 11,506 cases, would rank No.35 in the world if it were a country (up from No.44 on April 24)
  • Russia overtook Turkey to reach No.7 rank in number of cases
  • Peru became the 14th country to cross 40,000 cases
  • 6 countries have crossed 150,000 cases (up from 1 on April 8)
  • 11 countries have crossed 75,000 cases (up from 4 on April 3)
  • 20 countries have crossed 25,000 cases (up from 11 on April 3)
  • 29 countries have crossed 15,000 cases (up from 16 on April 16)
  • 37 countries have crossed 10,000 cases (up from 23 on April 16)
  • 43 countries have crossed 7,500 cases (up from 26 on April 16)
  • 51 countries have crossed 5,000 cases (up from 20 on April 16)

  • 5 countries have 20,000+ deaths (up from just 1 on April 3)
  • 9 countries have 5000+ deaths (up from 5 on April 3)
  • 14 countries have 2500+ deaths (up from 7 on April 3)
  • 22 countries have 1000+ deaths (up from 10 on April 3)
  • 27 countries have 500+ deaths (up from 16 on April 16)

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