I have been conducting Data Analytics Studies on the Coronavirus Pandemic for 108 days and have written 171 research-based blog posts on COVID-19 in these 108 days.
What does the graph tell you?
It tells me that India has still not been able to flatten the growth curve of the disease, even 3 months after the first lockdown was imposed. On the contrary, Covid-19 cases continue to grow at an average of 3.6% per day, though this is a 25% reduction from the average growth of 4.8% per day during the last 5 days of May.
However, in terms of absolute numbers, India has reported an average of 16,507 cases per day in the last 5 days, which is more than 2.07 times the average of 7,963 cases per day in the last 5 days of May.
This has happened mainly because an average of 2,09,243 tests per day have been done in the last 5 days, which is almost 1.76 times the average 1,19,009 tests per day done in the last 5 days of May.
Why have the cases gone up 2.07 times when the testing has been less than 1.76 times. This is because India’s Positivity Rate (percentage of total tests being tested as positive) has been continuously shooting up. The average Positivity Rate was 6.51% in the last 5 days of May, and this has gone up to average 8.58% in the last 5 days. This has also led to the cumulative Positivity Rate going up from 4.83% on May 26 to 6.37% yesterday.
The average Positivity Rate of the Top 30 countries in terms of Covid cases is 4.21%. However, if we leave out China (since hardly anyone believes their low case count), the average Positivity Rate of the remaining 29 countries goes up to 7.47%. Therefore, India’s Positivity Rate is inching up towards the average of these 29 countries, which can only means that India has not only increased testing, but is now testing more efficiently compared with just about a month ago.
READ THESE RECENT POSTS:
LATEST UPDATES (at 11:00 am UTC; June 27, 2020):
- The world has crossed 9.931 million cases
- The global death toll is over 497,500
- With 510,872 cases and 15,712 deaths. India is No.4 in the world in cases and No.8 in deaths. Maharashtra state, with 152,765 cases and 7,106 deaths, would rank No.17 in cases and No.15 in deaths if it were a country
- India became the 4th country to cross 500,000 cases
- 4 countries have crossed 500,000 cases (up from 0 on April 1)
- 8 countries have crossed 250,000 cases (up from 0 on April 1)
- 16 countries have crossed 150,000 cases (up from 1 on April 3)
- 19 countries have crossed 100,000 cases (up from 3 on April 3)
- 30 countries have crossed 50,000 cases (up from 8 on April 3)
- 46 countries have crossed 25,000 cases (up from 11 on April 3)
- 58 countries have crossed 15,000 cases (up from 16 on April 16)
- 66 countries have crossed 10,000 cases (up from 23 on April 16)
- Pakistan became the 21st country to cross 4,000 deaths
- 2 countries have crossed 50,000 deaths (up from 0 on April 3)
- 7 countries have crossed 25,000 deaths (up from 0 on April 3)
- 9 countries have crossed 10,000 deaths (up from 0 on April 3)
- 18 countries have crossed 5,000 deaths (up from 5 on April 3)
- 24 countries have crossed 2,500 deaths (up from 7 on April 3)
- 36 countries have crossed 1,000 deaths (up from 10 on April 3)
- 49 countries have crossed 500 deaths (up from 16 on April 16)