India Will Have the Most Coronavirus Cases Before Dussehra

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I have been conducting Data Analytics Studies on the Coronavirus Pandemic for 183 days and have written 222 research-based blog posts on COVID-19 in these 183 days.

Just six days ago, I had predicted that India will cross USA to become the world’s most Covid19 affected country by 10 November. A lot has changed since then.

While India has added an average of 89,514 daily Corona cases in the last seven days, the US has added only 36,281 average daily cases during this period.

The gap is therefore 53,233 cases per day. Considering that the gap is 44,830 cases per day if you account for the last 14 days, it is obvious that the gap is increasing by the day.

As of end-of-day yesterday (10 September) in both countries (considering different time zones), USA has 20,23,060 more cases than India. If we go by the data of the last 14 days, India will cross the US by 26 October, just a day after Dussehra. However, if we go by the data of the last seven days, India will cross the US by 19 October, six days BEFORE Dussehra.

If the gap keeps widening the way it has been for the past 45 days, India is likely to cross the US even sooner, perhaps even by the end of September.

In the last 14 days, India has accounted for 32% of total worldwide Covid-19 cases. The same was the case yesterday, when India reported its highest single-day case tally of 96,760 cases and 1,213 deaths.

Almost everyone now recognises why cases in India continue to rise — it is because we are testing more aggressively. India has carried out an average of 10,44,295 tests per day (TPDs), compared to an average of 8,41,764 TPDs in the previous 14 days and only 6,32,960 TPDs in the 14 days prior to that.

With a total of only 38,285 Tests per Million residents (TPMs), India is still way behind several other countries which have reported over 2,00,000 cases — USA (2,71,496 TPMs), Russia (2,70,646), UK (2,59,284), Spain (2,13,594), Germany, Saudi Arabia, Italy and France (over 1,50,000 each), Chile (1,42,034), Peru (1,04,573), Turkey (97,177), Brazil, South Africa and Colombia (over 60,000 each), Iraq and Iran (over 40,000 each).

Of the 23 countries which have crossed 2,00,000 cases, only Argentina, Philippines, Pakistan, Mexico, Bangladesh and Indonesia have carried out fewer TPMs than India.

I once again ask the same question that I have been asking for several days now: “do PM Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah, Health Minister Dr. Harsh Vardhan — as well as CMs of states — have any strategy/ies to start reducing the daily new cases in India, as several other countries — including USA, Brazil and Russia — have done?”


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LATEST UPDATES (at 06:00 am UTC; 11 September 2020):

  • The world has crossed 28.33 million (2.833 crore) cases
  • The global death toll is over 9,13,900
  • With 45,66,726 cases and 76,336 deaths, India is No.2 in cases and No.3 in deaths.
  • India’s Maharashtra state, with 9,90,795 cases and 28,282 deaths, would rank No.5 in cases and No.10 in deaths if it were a country
  • 4 countries have crossed 10,00,000 (10 lac) cases (up from 0 on April 3)
  • 10 countries have crossed 5,00,000 cases (up from 0 on April 3)
  • 21 countries have crossed 2,50,000 cases (up from 1 on April 3)
  • 32 countries have crossed 1,00,000 cases (up from 3 on April 3)
  • 2 countries have crossed 1,25,000 deaths (up from 0 on April 3)
  • 4 countries have crossed 50,000 deaths (up from 0 on April 3)
  • 9 countries have crossed 25,000 deaths (up from 0 on April 3)
  • 16 countries have crossed 10,000 deaths (up from 0 on April 3)
  • 27 countries have crossed 5,000 deaths (up from 5 on April 3)
  • 34 countries have crossed 2,500 deaths (up from 7 on April 3)

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