At 30 million, what do the numbers tell?

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I have been conducting Data Analytics Studies on the Coronavirus Pandemic for 189 days and have written 223 research-based blog posts on COVID-19 in these 189 days.

Our planet crossed the milestone of 30 million (3 crore) Covid-19 cases at about midnight UTC last night.  With 30.078 million cases now, it means that about 1 in every 260 people in the world have tested positive for the pandemic.

It took 121 days for the world to get to the first 5 million (50 lakh) cases, 36 days to 10 million (1 crore), 24 days to 15 million (1.5 crore), 19 days to 20 million (2 crore), 20 days to 25 million (2.5 crore), and now only 18 days to 30 million (3 crore) cases.

An average of 271,911 cases per day have been reported in the last 14 days. This means that we are likely to cross 35 million (3.5 crore) cases again in 18 days. Is this what experts call “the flattening of the curve?”

About 22.7% of the cases are from USA alone; 54.4% from the Top 3 countries — USA, India and Brazil; 71.4% from the Top 10 countries (in number of cases); and 81.1% from the 18 countries which have reported over 300,000 cases.

Approximately 29.9% of the cases have been reported from Asia, ~27.1% from North America, ~24.2% from Central & South America, and ~14.1% from Europe. Asia overtook North America as the continent with the most number of cases just two weeks ago primarily because of the huge growth in cases reported by India.

About 3.14% of those affected have succumbed to the deadly disease. The Fatality Rate (percentage of those dying from the disease) has been continuously falling for several weeks. About 31.1% of the deaths are from North America, ~24.6% from Central & South America, ~22.7% from Europe, and ~18% from Asia. Europe has a disproportionately high fatality rate and Asia disproportionately low probably because of the average age of residents in these continents — Europe having a much older age than Asia.

Though the Coronavirus Pandemic is unlikely to reach anywhere close to the infection or death count of the Spanish Flu or HIV/AIDS pandemics, the number of lab confirmed COVID-19 cases is already more than 61.2 times higher than the number of lab-confirmed H1N1 Swine Flu cases reported to the World Health Organization (WHO).

The global death count from the COVID19 pandemic is already more than 51.2 times higher than the number of lab-confirmed H1N1 Swine Flu deaths reported to WHO and is already almost 1.65 times its maximum estimated death count of 575,000.


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LATEST UPDATES (at 12:05 pm UTC; 17 September 2020):

  • The world has crossed 30.077 million (3 crore) cases
  • The global death toll is over 945,800
  • With 51,22,846 cases and 83,257 deaths, India is No.2 in cases and No.3 in deaths in the world
  • India’s Maharashtra state, with 11,21,221 cases and 30,883 deaths, would rank No.4 in cases and No.9 in deaths if it were a country
  • 4 countries have crossed 10,00,000 (10 lac) cases (up from 0 on April 3)
  • 10 countries have crossed 5,00,000 cases (up from 0 on April 3)
  • 22 countries have crossed 2,50,000 cases (up from 1 on April 3)
  • 34 countries have crossed 1,00,000 cases (up from 3 on April 3)
  • USA has crossed 2,00,000 deaths
  • 2 countries have crossed 1,30,000 deaths (up from 0 on April 3)
  • 4 countries have crossed 50,000 deaths (up from 0 on April 3)
  • 9 countries have crossed 25,000 deaths (up from 0 on April 3)
  • 16 countries have crossed 10,000 deaths (up from 0 on April 3)
  • 27 countries have crossed 5,000 deaths (up from 5 on April 3)
  • 34 countries have crossed 2,500 deaths (up from 7 on April 3)

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