India Crosses 15,000 Daily Cases for the First Time as Testing Rate Improves

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I have been conducting Data Analytics Studies on the Coronavirus Pandemic for 102 days and have written 163 research-based blog posts on COVID-19 in these 102 days.

India reported 15,915 new Covid-19 cases yesterday, which was the highest daily case count for the country till date. The second highest was 14,721 cases the day before (June 19) and the third highest was 13,827 cases on Thursday (June 18). India crossed 10,000 new daily cases for the first time on June 6.

The 136,947 cases reported by India in the past 11 days — at an average of 12,450 cases per day — account for 8.71% of the total 1,572,660 cases reported worldwide. On a cumulative basis, India only accounts for 4.62% of total cases worldwide — and 22.1% of total cases in Asia — but as India ramps up testing, this percentage is only expected to shoot up, given that the country accounts for 17.7% of the world population and 29.75% of Asia’s population.

The 7-day moving average of daily new cases in India now stands at 12,872 (see graph) compared with just 9,656 eleven days earlier, which amounts to a growth of 33.3%.

Only 3 countries — USA, Brazil and Russia — have more cases than India. In these 11 days, India’s cumulative daily growth rate in cases has been 8.9% higher than Brazil, 159.7% higher than Russia and 211.6% higher than USA. At the respective growth rates of the 4 countries, India is now expected to overtake Russia in the next 12 days.

All of this is happening because India has substantially enhanced testing in the past 11 days. India has conducted an average of 154,580 Tests per Day (TPD) in these 11 days, compared to 130,207 TPD in the 11 days prior to that, and just 107,368 TPD in the 11 days before that.

India has conducted an average of 173,857 TPD in the past 4 days, which have resulted in recording an average of 14,392 new daily cases, at an average Positivity Rate (percentage of those tested as positive for Covid019) of 8.28%. The country has conducted 4,934 Tests per Million residents (TPM) till date. India’s cumulative Positivity Rate has gone up to 6.05%, from just 4.68% a month back.

USA’s Positivity Rate is 8.33% with 84,534 TPM and Russia’s is 3.46% with 114,171 TPM. Brazil’s testing data has not been updated since June 5. Keeping in mind that testing data of 3-4 countries have not been updated, the average Positivity Rate of the 18 countries which have crossed 100,000 cases — is 7.28%.

Yesterday, India had become the fourth country to cross 400,000 (4 lakh) cases.

NOTE: It is good to see that India has ramped up testing, as this was very much required —  something that I have been persistently been saying for over three months.



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LATEST UPDATES (at 5:00 am UTC; June 21, 2020):

  • The world has crossed 8.921 million cases
  • The global death toll is over 466,800
  • With 411,727 cases and 13,277 deaths. India is No.4 in the world in cases (up from No.22 on April 14) and No.8 deaths. Maharashtra state, with 128,205 cases and 5,984 deaths, would rank No.17 in cases and No.16 in deaths if it were a country
  • Peru became the 7th country to cross 250,000 cases
  • Pakistan overtook Mexico to reach the No.13 rank in number of cases
  • 7 countries have crossed 250,000 cases (up from 0 on April 1)
  • 16 countries have crossed 150,000 cases (up from 1 on April 3)
  • 18 countries have crossed 100,000 cases (up from 3 on April 3)
  • 26 countries have crossed 50,000 cases (up from 8 on April 3)
  • 44 countries have crossed 25,000 cases (up from 11 on April 3)
  • 53 countries have crossed 15,000 cases (up from 16 on April 16)
  • 64 countries have crossed 10,000 cases (up from 23 on April 16)
  • Mexico became the 7th country to cross 20,000 deaths
  • Russia became the 13th country to cross 8,000 deaths
  • Chile became the 20th country to cross 4,000 deaths
  • 2 countries have crossed 50,000 deaths (up from 0 on April 3)
  • 6 countries have crossed 25,000 deaths (up from 0 on April 3)
  • 8 countries have crossed 10,000 deaths (up from 0 on April 3)
  • 16 countries have crossed 5,000 deaths (up from 5 on April 3)
  • 21 countries have crossed 2,500 deaths (up from 7 on April 3)
  • 34 countries have crossed 1,000 deaths (up from 10 on April 3)
  • 47 countries have crossed 500 deaths (up from 16 on April 16)

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